Published 10.02.2021

NESA’s scenario project finished and report now available also in English

The scenario report “The new normal of security of supply” prepared by the National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA) explores the permanent changes in the operating environment caused by the coronavirus crisis and examines their impacts on security of supply. This version is a translation of the original Finnish-language report, which was published in December 2020.

These are the first scenarios that the NESA has produced independently. Their aim is to provide comprehensive foresight based on lessons learned about previous scenario projects, freely available current analysis data and security of supply experts’ assessments of the most notable changes. To this end, the scope of the scenario planning was limited to the medium-term future, and the scenarios were prepared on a shorter schedule and with a more limited number of participating experts than in previous scenario projects. As in previous scenario planning projects, the NESA’s foresight and analysis were carried out with the support of the organisations and representatives thereof involved in the National Emergency Supply Organisation’s operations.

The report presents four different scenarios of a future after the coronavirus crisis and the resulting pressures for change regarding the development of security of supply operations in the post-COVID ‘new normal.’ The purpose of the report is not to provide accurate predictions of the future, but to describe alternative futures that can be used in security of supply planning. The scenarios are all principally equal. The actual future will most likely be a combination of the different scenarios, depending on the central dynamics of the primary driving forces.

Preparedness planning needs to be supported by foresight activities and data, now more than ever. Security of supply is particularly vulnerable to sudden changes in the operating environment, consisting as it does primarily of consistent and long-term cooperation. Security of supply measures are typically the result of patient planning, broad cooperation and mutual understanding.

The hope is that this report will open discussion on the link between the monitoring of the global operating environment and security of supply.  Diverse and open-minded discussion will be needed in the coming years, as security of supply must genuinely live with the times.

Read the complete report here.

For more information, please contact: Director Christian Fjäder, the National Emergency Supply Agency, Planning and analysis department, e-mail: