Overall situational picture of security of supply, 15 September 2026 – cybersecurity is a cause for concern across all industries

According to the most recent overall situational picture, cybersecurity is raising concerns across all industries. One perceived risk is the growing and increasingly rapid use of artificial intelligence to identify vulnerabilities.

For the time being, the impacts of the Iran war are mainly reflected in higher prices and delivery delays. Some suppliers are finding it difficult to commit to delivery times. However, supply issues have so far remained limited. The risks are no longer limited solely to the Strait of Hormuz, but also extend to alternative export routes, particularly Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline and the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea.

With regard to gas, the situation in Central Europe may become more strained during the winter, but this is expected to affect Finland mainly in the form of pressure to increase energy prices.

There are currently no disruptions to fuel distribution that are affecting security of supply. Any minor impacts and uncertainties are mainly related to price developments and delivery times. If the Iran conflict continues, it may cause prices to rise significantly.

The availability of aviation fuel does not appear to be at risk. The price of aviation fuel has remained high and is expected to remain so into next year. The high price is affecting the route profitability of airlines, which has led to capacity cuts and is threatening the business continuity of some airlines with poor safeguards.

The production volumes for the current growing season do not pose a threat to security of supply, but rainfall and soft fields are making harvesting difficult in Central and Northern Finland.

Russian sabotage operations in Europe have increased. In particular, these attacks are directed at support for Ukraine and the defence industry.

African swine fever outbreaks have so far not posed a risk to the supply of food. With regard to the restrictions imposed on infected zones, the situation is considered to have become clearer compared to the situation at the outset.

The overall situational picture of security of supply compiled by the National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA) examines the challenges in the operating environment from several perspectives. The situational picture report includes an overview of different industries’ ability to function and the challenges they may face.

The publication cycle of the overall situational picture of security of supply compiled by the NESA can be changed as necessary. The NESA releases a brief summary of the situational picture report. The details concerning industries are classified and are therefore not made public.

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