Overall situational picture of security of supply: current economic trends bode ill for construction and forest industries

The declining economic situation is causing challenges for both the construction and forest industries. Meanwhile, the peak of the recent avian influenza outbreak seems to have passed for now, and the related risks are decreasing due to the autumn migration.

The overall situational picture of security of supply examines the challenges in the operating environment from several perspectives. The situational picture report includes an overview of different industries’ ability to function and the challenges they may face. The situational picture is updated once a month, with the next situational picture report set to be published on 13 October.

The National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA) releases a brief summary of the situational picture report. The details concerning industries are classified and are therefore not made public.

Situational picture on 15 September: Crop yields expected to remain smaller than average

As regards primary production, Finland’s total crop yields are expected to remain smaller than average for all crops.

The peak of the recent avian influenza outbreak seems to have passed for now. The risk remains high for the poultry industry, but is decreasing as a result of the autumn migration of birds.

The economic outlook of the construction industry, which has deteriorated significantly, is posing challenges for construction companies. The majority of the construction industry’s performance relevant to security of supply is generated by infrastructure construction, which is also the sector of the construction industry where the economic situation has remained the most stable.

As regards health care, there are challenges in the availability of cheap medications that are no longer protected by patents. One group of such medications is antibiotics, in regard to which the situation in Finland may decline further.

The weak economic situation is reducing production in the forest industry and also affecting the supply of fuel wood. As a result, the availability of fuel wood in the upcoming heating season is expected to remain lower than in the previous heating season.

According to the preliminary results of the Emergency Preparedness and Crisis Resilience of Households survey, 44% of respondents reported having carried out at least one preparedness measure in response to the war in Ukraine or the energy crisis last winter. Respondents who faced challenges with income sufficiency and those living in blocks of flats or renting rated their level of preparedness as the lowest.