Frontpage/News/Russia’s higher rail freight tariffs have no significant impact on Finland’s security of supply
Published 13.07.2026
Russia’s higher rail freight tariffs have no significant impact on Finland’s security of supply
According to the National Emergency Supply Agency’s current assessment, the security-of-supply impacts of Russia’s new increases in rail freight tariffs are limited and manageable.
The reorganisation of supply chains undertaken by Finnish companies in recent years, together with Finland’s security-of-supply framework and joint monitoring efforts, mitigate the impact.
Russia increased rail freight tariffs for cargo bound for Finland eightfold as of the beginning of July. Prior to this, border crossing points between Russia and Finland had already been closed, with the exception of the Vainikkala border station, through which rail freight such as fertilizers and ammonia, a key raw material for fertilizer production, has continued to be transported to Finland and elsewhere in Europe.
In the current security environment, it remains important to further reduce dependencies on individual supplier countries.
From the perspective of Finland’s security of supply, recent years have highlighted the need to strengthen domestic and EU-based self-sufficiency in critical production inputs, such as fertilizers and their raw materials. The situation also underlines the importance of jointly monitoring developments in the operating environment and maintaining both state emergency stockpiles and corporate buffer stocks.
The National Emergency Supply Agency has compiled an overview of the anticipated impacts across different sectors.
Agriculture: sufficient fertilizers available for the current growing season
The tariff decision may contribute to changes in the price level of fertilizers and fertilizer raw materials required by agriculture. From the security-of-supply perspective, fertilizer availability for the current growing season in Finland has been secured.
The majority of fertilizers used in Finland are domestically produced. Russian fertilizers have accounted for approximately 10–15 per cent of the Finnish market in recent years. In addition, declining quantities of ammonia have been imported from Russia for use by the domestic fertilizer industry.
As a result of the higher rail freight tariffs, imports of Russian fertilizers into Finland, as well as their transit through Finland, are likely to decrease significantly as the commercial viability of these shipments deteriorates. Alternative sources of supply are available, but higher transportation costs and reduced competition may lead to increased fertilizer prices.
From a security-of-supply perspective, however, the situation is expected to remain stable during the current growing season.
Based on current projections, sufficient fertilizer supplies are also expected to be available for the 2027 growing season, although procurement sources may change to some extent. Potential cost increases remain a factor to monitor, as uncertainties continue to affect the international market environment.
Logistics sector has already adapted
Freight traffic between Finland and Russia has already declined substantially in recent years due to sanctions, counter-sanctions and restrictions on cross-border traffic.
Transport operators in Finland have adapted to the situation by shifting freight volumes to ports, maritime transport and alternative routes within the EU. Consequently, the impact of the higher rail freight tariffs on Finland’s national security of supply is currently limited.
However, logistics and port companies that have handled cargo originating from Russia may lose part of their business as import volumes decline further.
No impact on electricity availability or industrial energy supply
No significant impacts on energy security are currently anticipated. Following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Finland has substantially reduced its dependence on Russian fossil energy sources in recent years. Imports of natural gas, coal, oil products and electricity from Russia have either ceased or been replaced by alternative sources.
The National Emergency Supply Agency assesses that the new measures will have no impact on electricity availability, district heating production or energy supplies for industry.
Russian nickel can be replaced in metal processing
Russian nickel has been one of the few Russian industrial raw materials still imported into Finland. Nickel is used in stainless steel, batteries and many technologies related to electrification. It is also used in specialised alloys for the defence and security industries. Due to its broad range of applications across multiple sectors, nickel is considered a critical raw material from a security-of-supply perspective.
If shipments of Russian nickel matte or other nickel raw materials to and through Finland decrease significantly, industry may face higher costs and a need to reorganise supply chains. The effects could be felt in metal refining and across the battery value chain.
A prolonged supply shortage is not currently considered likely, as nickel is available from other global sources. However, alternative procurement may increase costs and cause temporary disruptions during the transition period. The ultimate impact will depend on how quickly companies succeed in replacing Russian nickel with supplies from other sources.
Photo: Colourbox