Situational picture of security of supply: energy and food production topical issues

The spring sowing areas in Finland decreased clearly less than expected, though agricultural production inputs are still exceptionally expensive. Globally, it is estimated that grain production will remain smaller than grain consumption. European-wide preparations are being taken for disruptions in gas availability.

Forming a common situational picture is essential in crisis situations and disruptions for decision-making. The National Emergency Supply Agency prepares a general situational picture of the security of supply to support the decision-making of the business sector and the Finnish government. The situational picture report provides a general overview of the functioning of the various industries and their possible challenges. Prepared together with the National Emergency Supply Organisation (NESO), the general situational picture looks at the challenges of the operating environment from several viewpoints.

The situational picture of the security of supply has been produced for two years. It was published every second week in late spring. The next general situational picture will be published on 5 August.

Situational picture of security of supply on 23 June: Globally, grain production is smaller than consumption

The war in Ukraine, together with the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, are reflected in several sectors of the security of supply, though the impacts on the security of supply have so far been well under control. Delivery times are long and costs are rising. The availability of raw materials, components, spare parts and other materials is challenging in many places. The significant increase in fuel prices continues to be reflected in all modes of transport, which, in turn, increases the prices of products in general.

Globally, grain stocks are estimated to decrease in 2022/23, especially for wheat and corn in countries exporting grain. According to estimates, production will remain below consumption. In Finland, the spring sowing areas decreased clearly less than expected. Fertilizers, fuels, electrical energy and feed needed by farms are still exceptionally expensive.

So far, 10 EU Member States have given an advance warning about gas supply disruptions. Several actions are underway in Finland to improve the security of gas supply. In addition, energy companies say that they are investigating spare fuel purchases in preparation for the coming winter. The current situation with the electricity supply system is normal and there is no special concern about the security of supply.

The Covid-19 pandemic in Finland is still calming down, even though the Omicron BA.5 sub-variant has become more common. As for the labour market, a settlement has been reached in the negotiations of the private social services sector.

The National Emergency Supply Agency publishes a short summary of the overview. Detailed industry information is security classified and, therefore, not public.