Climate change challenges security of supply in agriculture and forestry – timely preparation for changes required

Climate change and increasing extreme weather events will have a variety of impacts on the security of supply of Finnish agriculture and forestry in the coming decades. In order to maintain the production capacity of Finnish agriculture, it is essential to anticipate the security of supply impacts of climate change now. In forestry, the length of the tree growth cycle requires that measures to counteract impacts be taken well in advance.

The National Emergency Supply Agency’s (NESA) PUUVILJA project involved assessing climate change risks in agriculture and forestry in terms of security of supply up to approximately 2045. The project report prepared by the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) for the NESA assesses the risks and proposes development measures to strengthen the capacity to operate of the two sectors’ operators amid changing conditions.

Impacts on agriculture will increase as a result of extreme weather events

Different weather patterns and extreme weather events will pose challenges for agriculture in the coming decades. Climate change will lead to more heavy rainfall and prolonged dry spells, which will reduce crop growth and yields and make it more difficult to harvest and move around in fields.

“From the perspective of Finland’s security of supply and self-sufficiency in food production, it is important that domestic production and farming capacity are maintained even in exceptional weather conditions. One of the key findings of the project in this regard is the importance of water management in fields, meaning how to divert excess water away from fields if necessary and, on the other hand, how to access more water during dry periods,” says Chief Preparedness Specialist Tapio Tourula from the National Emergency Supply Agency.

In addition to water management, key ways to ensure security of supply in agriculture include flexible farming methods and diversification of production. Furthermore, it is important to conduct research and monitoring of new agricultural pests, which have spread to Finland faster than expected.

Storm damage, harvesting and logistics highlighted in forestry

The weather variations and extreme events brought about by climate change will also affect forestry, as the changing climate will cause storm damage, weaken conditions for harvesting, make transport more difficult and create storage challenges. At the same time, the threat of new pests and pathogens will increase.

“In forestry, the most acute risks to security of supply are the difficulty of winter harvesting due to a lack of snow and frost and the shock effects of large-scale storm and insect damage on timber harvesting, logistics and storage. We know from lessons learned in Central and Eastern Europe how far-reaching the consequences can be. Because the forest growth cycle is long, the reform decisions made today will have an impact decades into the future – that is why risk anticipation is essential,” says Research Manager Markus Melin from the Natural Resources Institute Finland, who is one of the authors of the report.

The PUUVILJA project was carried out as part of the NESA’s Energy 2030 programme, which is looking for ways to ensure uninterrupted energy supply in a low-carbon society.

Read the final report of the project here (in Finnish).

Photo: Markus Melin